IMF Working Papers

Estimated Monthly National Accounts for the United States

By Philip Barrett

July 4, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Philip Barrett. "Estimated Monthly National Accounts for the United States", IMF Working Papers 2025, 134 (2025), accessed July 6, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229015257.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

I jointly estimate monthly series for GDP and eight subcomponents for the US since 1950. The series match 1) quarterly national accounts equivalents, 2) exact data on monthly consumption, and 3) past relationships with other monthly indicators. I estimate the Kalman filter parameters by GMM, allowing fast calculation of confidence intervals for monthly estimates including parameter uncertainty, and validate the confidence intervals. After 1970 standard errors are tight, less than 0.3pp of GDP, and point estimates informative, with standard deviations four times the standard error. I provide confidence intervals for recessions and show that output peaks line up well with the onset of NBER recessions, but troughs often predate NBER equivalents.

Subject: Consumption, Econometric analysis, Economic growth, Economic recession, Estimation techniques, Exports, Imports, International trade, National accounts

Keywords: Consumption, Economic recession, Estimation techniques, Exports, GDP, GMM, Imports, Kalman Filter, Recession

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