IMF Working Papers

A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth

By David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki, Christine J. Richmond

July 4, 2025

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Format: Chicago

David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki, and Christine J. Richmond "A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth", IMF Working Papers 2025, 135 (2025), accessed July 6, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229015196.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper describes a macroeconomic framework integrating disasters in the analysis of growth and long-term economic resilience. The framework is a dynamic growth model incorporating endogenous human and physical capital accumulation, fiscal policy interventions, and public debt dynamics. The model allows for flexible analyses of slow and fast onset climate impacts and fiscal policy reforms to foster sustainable long-term growth and adaptation, including enhanced spending on resilient investment and non-structural adaptation options. Focusing on adaptation policies, specifically on investing in resilient infrastructure, we present the country cases of Benin and Jamaica, examining tradeoffs and synergies in macro-fiscal policies for addressing sustainable long-term growth and the impacts of disasters.

Subject: Climate change, Climate policy, Development, Environment, Fiscal policy, Human capital, Infrastructure, Labor, Macro-fiscal framework, National accounts, Natural disasters, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

Keywords: Adaptation, Climate change, Climate policy, Debt Sustainability, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Global, Human capital, Infrastructure, Macro-fiscal framework, Natural disasters, Natural Disasters, Public Investment, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

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