IMF Working Papers

Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia

By Natasha X Che, Federico J Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin

August 22, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Natasha X Che, Federico J Diez, Anne Oeking, and Weining Xin. "Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia", IMF Working Papers 2025, 168 (2025), accessed August 28, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229018418.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper explores Asia-Pacific's medium-term growth prospects using two approaches. First, growth accounting analysis and machine-learning estimation reveal how demographics, capital deepening, productivity, and human capital shaped Asia's growth. Second, an innovative algorithm forecasts growth by matching countries' current conditions with historically analogous periods using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). Comparing pattern-based forecasts with traditional projections highlights economic convergence and demographic headwinds. Results show that without ambitious reforms, Asia's growth will likely moderate, though remaining the world's fastest growing region. The paper offers data-driven tools for policymakers to identify growth drivers and generate robust forecasts.

Subject: Capital productivity, Economic growth, Growth accounting, Human capital, Labor, Population and demographics, Production, Total factor productivity

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Asia-Pacific, Capital productivity, Demographics, Dynamic Time Warping, Economic convergence, Global, Growth accounting, Growth accounting, Growth forecasting, Human capital, Labor force participation, Machine learning, Productivity, Total factor productivity

Publication Details

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