IMF Working Papers

Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa

By Geoffrey M Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian J Nield, Eucharist Muaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga, Aiulu Tolovaa

May 16, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Geoffrey M Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian J Nield, Eucharist Muaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga, and Aiulu Tolovaa. "Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa", IMF Working Papers 2025, 092 (2025), accessed May 17, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009782.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper describes the recent work to strengthen the nowcasting capacity at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS). It compiles available high-frequency datasets such as tourism receipts, agriculture market survey, remittances, among others, to nowcast real GDP in Samoa. Nowcasting enables the estimation of the present and near-term forecast. It employs standard nowcasting methods such as Bridge, Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS), and Unrestricted MIDAS (U-MIDAS). All methods significantly outperform the naive forecasts. Our analysis show that forecast combination of the three methods minimizes the root mean squared error (RMSE) for both full and pre-COVID-19 samples, while U-MIDAS performs better during crises, particularly in identifying turning points during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strengthening nowcasting capacity is important for Samoa, where real GDP data release experiences up to a 90-day lag.

Subject: Balance of payments, Central Banks, Commercial banks, COVID-19, Econometric analysis, Economic forecasting, Economic sectors, Financial institutions, Fiscal policy, Health, International reserves, Macro-fiscal framework, Monetary base, Money, Open market operations, Remittances, Tourism

Keywords: Agricultural production, Asia and Pacific, Australia and New Zealand, Cambodia, Commercial banks, Committee on the Budget, COVID-19, Forecasting, International reserves, Macro-fiscal framework, Monetary base, Natural disasters, Nowcasting, Open market operations, Pacific Islands, Real GDP, Remittances, Samoa, Singapore, Tourism

Publication Details

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