IMF Working Papers

Industrial Policy Since the Great Financial Crisis

By Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Jaden Kim, Fernando Martín, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Rafael Machado Parente

October 31, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Jaden Kim, Fernando Martín, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, and Rafael Machado Parente. "Industrial Policy Since the Great Financial Crisis", IMF Working Papers 2025, 222 (2025), accessed November 2, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229027786.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper extends the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO) dataset from 2009 to 2023 by employing large language model techniques to identify policy motivations. We document widespread industrial policy adoption across advanced and emerging market economies since the Great Financial Crisis, which was implemented primarily through subsidies and trade restrictions. We identify a structural break around 2020, characterized by accelerated policy activity and the emergence of “new industrial policies” motivated by supply chain resilience, national security, and geopolitical concerns, in addition to policies focused on competitiveness and climate objectives, which were already prevalent in previous years. Policies have targeted dual-use and various advanced technology sectors, as well as their upstream inputs, such as critical raw materials and minerals. We find that geopolitical risk and tit-for-tat retaliation have played a greater role in driving industrial policy after 2020, and that this support extends beyond existing sectors of comparative advantage.

Subject: Comparative advantage, Competition, Exports, Financial markets, Imports, International trade

Keywords: Comparative advantage, Competition, Data, Exports, Global, Imports, Industrial Policy, Trade Policy

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