IMF Working Papers

How Do High Interest Rates Affect Banks: The Roles of Loan Losses and Macroprudential Policy

By Romain Bouis, Sumaiyah R Mirza, Erlend Nier

September 26, 2025

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Romain Bouis, Sumaiyah R Mirza, and Erlend Nier. "How Do High Interest Rates Affect Banks: The Roles of Loan Losses and Macroprudential Policy", IMF Working Papers 2025, 196 (2025), accessed September 27, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229024921.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper examines empirically how the effect of interest rates on the three components of bank profits – loan loss provisions, net interest margin, and non-interest income – varies depending on bank characteristics and the macroprudential policy environment. A new finding is that higher interest rates lead to larger loan loss provisions for banks offering flexible-rate loans, but that this effect is attenuated when macroprudential borrower-based measures have been tight in preceding years. Tighter macroprudential settings also reduce the effect of higher unemployment on loan loss provisions recorded by banks, and thereby the negative impact of unemployment on profitability. Moreover, we find significant heterogeneity across banks: banks with strong risk appetite that extend loans at flexible rates are adversely affected by higher interest rates, as the effect on loan losses dominates the effect on the interest margin, while the profitability of other banks benefits on average from higher interest rates.

Subject: Bank soundness, Financial institutions, Financial regulation and supervision, Financial sector policy and analysis, Income, Labor, Loan loss provisions, Loans, Macroprudential policy, National accounts, Securities, Unemployment rate

Keywords: Bank profitability, Bank soundness, Income, Interest rate, Loan loss provisions, Loan loss provisions, Loans, Macroprudential policy, Macroprudential policy, Net interest margin, Securities, Unemployment rate

Publication Details

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