IMF Working Papers

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Kazakhstan: Results With a Small Macro Model

By Gregorio Impavido

August 29, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Gregorio Impavido. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Kazakhstan: Results With a Small Macro Model", IMF Working Papers 2025, 173 (2025), accessed September 6, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229016988.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kazakhstan using a small macro model and identifies alternative plausible economic structures consistent with priors on the sign of responses of macro variables to structural shocks. Monetary policy effectiveness has increased over time.

Subject: Business cycles, Central bank policy rate, Econometric analysis, Economic growth, Economic theory, Exchange rates, Financial services, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Output gap, Prices, Production, Structural vector autoregression, Supply shocks, Vector autoregression

Keywords: Business cycles, Central bank policy rate, Emerging Asia, Exchange rates, G7, Inflation, Inflation persistence, Macroeconomic risks, Monetary policy effectiveness, Output gap, Parametric restrictions, Sign restrictions, Structural vector autoregression, Supply shocks, SVARs, Vector autoregression

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