IMF Working Papers

Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios

By Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López, Sha Yu

August 29, 2025

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Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López, and Sha Yu. "Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios", IMF Working Papers 2025, 170 (2025), accessed September 5, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229021890.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Climate change poses significant and diverse impacts on countries’ macroeconomic and financial stability, resulting in complex macro-critical policy challenges. Consequently, where significant, country-level macroeconomic analysis may need to integrate climate change-related impacts and policies. This paper reviews (i) climate change and related policies’ channels of impact on the real, fiscal, external, monetary, and financial sectors over various time horizons and (ii) corresponding data sources, models, and climate scenarios that could be applied in assessing the impact of physical climate risks as well as adaptation, transition, and mitigation policies. The paper concludes with considerations for future work.

Subject: Climate change, Climate policy, Debt sustainability analysis, Environment, External debt, Greenhouse gas emissions, Natural disasters, Non-renewable resources

Keywords: Adaptation, Climate change, Climate change, Climate policy, Debt sustainability analysis, Economic growth, Global, Greenhouse gas emissions, Natural disasters, Non-renewable resources

Publication Details

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