IMF Working Papers

Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy

By Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, Michael Spence

August 8, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, and Michael Spence. "Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy", IMF Working Papers 2025, 156 (2025), accessed August 12, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229018104.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformations in recent decades. This descriptive study analyzes tradable and nontradable sectoral trends, with our findings demonstrating that the share of tradable sector employment and, within it, manufacturing employment, leveled off in the decade following the GFC after declining for several decades. Still, by 2023, the nontradable sector accounted for a large majority of employment and real value added. At the same time, the tradable sector exhibited robust productivity growth of nearly 3 percent, juxtaposed against far lower 0.7 percent growth in nontradable sectors. This marked divergence raises concerns regarding inequality and the sustainability of economic growth.

Subject: Employment, Labor, Labor productivity, Production, Productivity

Keywords: Employment, Global, Labor productivity, Nontradable, Productivity, Productivity, Structural change, Tradable

Publication Details

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