Broad range of opinions. Panelists offered diverging views on the future shape of the financial system. Allaire envisioned a decentralized system akin to the open internet, in which consumers across the globe were empowered to engage with other economic actors without intermediation. Other panelists were more reserved in their assessments, essentially viewing digital technologies such as cryptocurrencies and blockchains as complements to the current system.

Trust, not technology, is the real obstacle. The success of digital payment platforms such as Alipay in China or M-Pesa in Kenya suggests that mature technologies already exist. In fact, Allaire stated that a digital version of the SDR could be rolled out in 12-24 months from a technological standpoint. The key factor, however, was establishing trust in the new system, and there was considerable debate about what engenders trust among consumers. Allaire argued that cryptocurrencies and blockchains were inherently trustworthy because they were immune from human fallibility or corruption. Youngblood noted that consumers continued to trust large financial institutions, suggesting a path for offerings such as digital coins backed by traditional financial institutions. Cœuré noted that the future of the financial system would be shaped by a complex mix of market forces, social preferences, and political considerations.

Payments are just the beginning. The promise of technologies such as blockchain extend far beyond their application in digital payments. Allaire argued that they have the potential to fundamentally restructure society. Njoroge noted that digital transactions provided a wealth of embedded information about businesses, which could have broad implications for SMEs and consumers. He offered an anecdote about Kenyan female merchants’ early morning borrowing on lending platforms as an example of the social benefits of even relatively simple digital payment technologies.