Booms and Busts: Are We Better Able to Deal with Them Today?

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DATE: April 21, 2018

DAY: Saturday

4:00 PM - 5:15 PM

LOCATION: IMF HQ1 – Meetings Halls A&B

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Financial crises are associated with boom—bust cycles in credit and housing prices. A consensus has emerged that booms are dangerous, although not all lead to crises. The challenge for policy makers is to identify booms and bubbles and decide whether to act on them. Yet all too often, policymakers believe that “this time is different.” At present, many markets are booming amid calls to roll back some measures put in place after the global financial crisis. There are also concerns that innovative technologies may give rise to “shadow booms.” The seminar will discuss what we know about boom—bust cycles, how we identify “bad” booms, and how to manage them, and how to limit the potential for busts.

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Booms and Busts: Are We Better Able to Deal with Them Today?


Moderator: Joumanna Bercetche

Joumanna Bercetche is co-anchor of the European edition of CNBC’s ‘Street Signs’. In addition to providing commentary and analysis on major company earnings and macro events, Joumanna spends much of her time interviewing policymakers and CFOs/ CEOs from across EMEA. She also reports live on monetary policy decisions of financial institutions around the world, such as the European Central Bank and Bank of England.  Bercetche joined CNBC in 2017 after 11 years in the City, working for Citigroup and Goldman Sachs as a macro and fixed income specialist on the trading floor. She studied Economics as an undergraduate at the American University of Beirut where she was the recipient of the Penrose Award. A dual national with UK and Lebanese citizenship, Joumanna speaks Arabic and English fluently.

Panelist: David Lipton

David Lipton David Lipton assumed the position of First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund on September 1, 2011. On March 28, 2016, he was reappointed for a second five-year term beginning September 1, 2016. Before coming to the Fund, Mr. Lipton was Special Assistant to the President, and served as Senior Director for International Economic Affairs at the National Economic Council and National Security Council at the White House. Previously, he was a Managing Director at Citi, and also served in the Clinton administration as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs — and before that as Assistant Secretary. Mr. Lipton earned a Ph.D. and M.A. from Harvard University in 1982 and a B.A. from Wesleyan University in 1975.

Panelist: Agustín Carstens

Mr. Carstens was Governor of the Bank of Mexico from 2010 to 2017. A member of the BIS Board from 2011 to 2017, he was chair of the Global Economy Meeting and the Economic Consultative Council from 2013 until 2017. He also chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the IMF's policy advisory committee from 2015 to 2017. Mr Carstens began his career in 1980 at the Bank of Mexico. From 1999 to 2000, he was Executive Director at the IMF. He later served as Mexico’s deputy finance minister (2000–03) and as Deputy Managing Director at the IMF (2003–06). He was Mexico's finance minister from 2006 to 2009. Mr Carstens has been a member of the Financial Stability Board since 2010 and is a member of the Group of Thirty. Mr Carstens holds an MA and a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago.

Panelist: Gene Frieda

Gene Frieda joined PIMCO in 2016 as executive vice president and global strategist based in London, and is co-head of foreign exchange strategy. Prior to that, he served as a partner and global strategist at Moore Capital, focusing on global macroeconomic and financial sector policy issues. He also ran emerging markets research and strategy for the Royal Bank of Scotland in London and for 4Cast in London and Singapore. He has 23 years of investment experience and holds a master's degree in economics from the London School of Economics. He has served as a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Global Imbalances, a member of the UN Expert Panel on Financing Global Education and as an associate of the Political Economy of Financial Markets program at Oxford University.

Panelist: Philip Lane

Philip R. Lane is the 11th Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has chaired the Advisory Scientific Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board and was Director of the International Macroeconomics and Finance Program at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Mr. Lane was also an academic consultant for the European Central Bank, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, OECD, Asian Development Bank and a number of national central banks. A graduate of Trinity College Dublin, Mr. Lane received a PhD in Economics from Harvard University in 1995 and was Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University (1995-1997) before returning to Dublin.

Panelist: Hélène Rey

Hélène Rey is the Lord Bagri Professor of Economics at London Business School.  Until 2007, she was at Princeton University, as Professor of Economics and International Affairs in the Economics Department and the Woodrow Wilson School. Since 2005, Ms. Rey has received several prestigious awards for making significant contribution to the Economics profession. She writes a regular column for the French newspaper Les Echos. Ms. Rey received her undergraduate degree from ENSAE, a Master in Engineering Economic Systems from Stanford University and her PhDs from the London School of Economics and the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales.